BRITISH SECURITY OFFICIAL SAYS SITUATION INVOLVING A PAKISTANI AIRPLANE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE TERROR-RELATED, ALTHOUGH IT'S STILL UNDER INVESTIGATION *

BRITAIN SCRAMBLED FIGHTER JETS TO INTERCEPT A COMMERCIAL AIRLINER CARRYING SOME 300 PASSENGERS FROM LAHORE, PAKISTAN TO MANCHESTER *

PLANE WAS DIVERTED TO STANDSTED AIRPORT, OUTSIDE OF LONDON, AND TWO PEOPLE WERE ARRESTED ON SUSPICION OF ENDANGERING THE AIRCRAFT *

AFHGAN AUTHORITIES SAY TWO GUARDS AND AT LEAST FIVE ATTACKERS WERE KILLED AFTER A TALIBAN SUICIDE BOMBER AND FIVE GUNMEN ATTACKED A GUEST HOUSE OF AN INTL AID GROUP IN CAPITAL KABUL *

ATTACKS SET OFF A SHOOTOUT THAT LASTED FOR HOURS *

THE TALIBAN QUICKLY CLAIMED RESPONSIBILITY *

IT WAS THE SECOND MAJOR STRIKE IN KABUL IN JUST OVER A WK *

INTL MONETARY FUND CHIEF NAMED AS A KEY WITNESS IN AN INVESTIGATION INTO A CONTROVERSIAL PAYOFF TO A FRENCH BUSINESSMAN *

THE PAYOFF ALLEGEDLY HAPPENED WHILE SHE WAS FRANCE'S FINANCE MIN *

CHRISTINE LAGARDE SAYS THE PARIS COURT HANDED HER THE STATUS OF "ASSISTING WITNESS" IN ITS PROBE OF A $520 MIL PAYOFF TO BUSINESS TYCOON BERNARD TAPIE *

LAGARDE COULD LATER BE CHARGED IN THE CASE *

PRES OBAMA WARNS NAVAL ACADEMY GRADUATES OF THE SERIOUSNESS OF SEXUAL ASSAULT IN THE ARMED FORCES *

IN A COMMENCEMENT SPEECH FRI IN ANNAPOLIS, MD, MR OBAMA SAYS SEXUAL ASSAULT IS A CRIME THAT HAS "NO PLACE IN THE GREATEST MILITARY ON EARTH" *

SPEECH COMES IN THE MIDST OF WIDESPREAD REPORTS OF SUCH MISCONDUCT THROUGHOUT THE MILITARY *

A RECENT PENTAGON REPORT ESTIMATED UP TO 26,000 MILITARY MEMBERS MAY HAVE BEEN SEXUALLY ASSAULTED LAST YR AND THAT THOUSANDS MORE ARE UNWILLING TO COME FORWARD *

JURY FOREMAN IN JODI ARIAS' TRIAL SAYS THE PANEL COULDN'T DECIDE WHETHER ARIAS KILLING HER BOYFRIEND WARRANTED A DEATH SENTENCE - AP *

WILLIAM ZERVAKOS SAID THE JURORS THOUGHT IT WAS UNFAIR FOR 12 AVERAGE AMERICANS TO DECIDE ARIAS' FATE *

THE SAME JURY CONVICTED ARIAS OF FIRST-DEGREE MURDER ON MAY 8, IN THE 2008 KILLING OF HER EX-BOYFRIEND TRAVIS ALEXANDER *

THE JUDGE DECLARED A MISTRIAL THURSDAY AFTER THE JURY DEADLOCKED *

A NEW PENALTY PHASE IS NOW SET FOR JULY *

FED JUDGE RULES MARICOPA COUNTY AZ SHERRIFF JOE ARPAIO'S OFFICE ENGAGES IN RACIAL PROFILING *

U.S. DISTRICT JUDGE MURRAY SNOW ALSO RULED FRI THAT PEOPLE STOPPED BY ARPAIO'S DEPUTIES ARE DETAINED FOR UNREASONABLY LONG PERIODS *

RULING BACKS UP ALLEGATIONS BY CRITICS SUCH AS THE ACLU THAT ARPAIO RELIES ON RACE IN ENFORCING IMMIGRATION *

ARPAIO HAS DENIED THE ALLEGATIONS *

WA GOV JAY INSLEE (D) SAYS FED OFFICIALS ARE SEARCHING FOR A TEMPORARY REPLACEMENT FOR THE I-5 BRIDGE THAT COLLAPSED INTO THE SKAGIT RIVER THURS NIGHT *

INSLEE SAYS REBUILDING THE 160-FOOT SECTION COULD TAKE MONTHS IF A REPLACEMENT CAN'T BE FOUND *

STATE OFFICIALS SAY AN OVERSIZED TRUCK CAUSED THE COLLAPSE AFTER HITTING AN OVERHEAD SPAN *

TWO VEHICLES PLUMMETED INTO THE WATER LEAVING THREE PEOPLE INJURED *

FDA RECEIVES REPORTS OF SEVEN CASES INVOLVING POTENTIALLY CONTAMINATED STEROID MEDICATIONS MADE BY A PHARMACY IN NEWBERN, TN *

INJECTIONS CONTAIN THE SAME DRUG AT THE CENTER OF LAST YR'S DEADLY FUNGAL MENINGITIS OUTBREAK THAT KILLED MORE THAN 50 PEOPLE *

THE PHARMACY HAS RECALLED THE PRODUCTS PENDING AN INVESTIGATION *

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This might be too ‘deep in the weeds’

by

Sep 5 2012 - 12:45 PM ET

comments

Last night on OTR, Austan Goolsbee joined us.  He previously served as the Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under President Obama.  We were discussing the question of how President Obama has handled the economy.  

During the interview, I walked Austan through some pretty grim current economic indicators.   In discussing it off camera, Austan told me that I should not be comparing the present time economic indicators to January 09 (when President Obama took office) but rather I should compare present numbers to later in that year – December 09.

I want to make sure I get this right and that I be fair so I asked that some research be done for me about the economic indicators I discussed with Austan.  I asked for a brief comparison of the economic indicators from Dec 09 to now (below.)

 This data below may be more than you want to read — in other words, ‘deep in the weeds’ but you may find it interesting (I was an economics major in college and have always been fascinated by economics …I almost pursued economics instead of law.)

Of course below is pretty meaningless to anyone who doesn’t have a job and desperately wants one.  Numbers are interesting to many of us — but reality (a job) is more important and I know that.  Please don’t think I am so cold as to think numbers are more important than whether YOU 0r anyone else has a job.

So check out below and it is just rough data and there are other economic indicators than below:

–

U.S. Economy – December 2009 to Current

 

1/Unemployment rate

 

Dec 2009: 9.9%

July 2012: 8.3%

 

[Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000]

 

/////////////////////////////////////////////////////

 

2/GDP

 

Quarterly Real GDP

 

Quarterly Real GDP (adjusted for inflation):

Billions; add nine zeros to each number. Seasonally adjusted annual rate.

2009q4 $12,873.1 (read as $12.87 trillion)

2012q2 $13.564.5

 

[Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis]

 

Real GDP growth – percent change from preceding period

 

2009q4 4.0%

2012q2 1.7%

 

[Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis]

 

///////////////////////////////////////////////////

 

3/Manufacturing Activity

 

Institute for Supply Management PMI index

Aug 2012 49.6% down 0.2 percentage points from July 2012

Dec 2009 55.9% up 2.3 percentage points from November 2009

 

[Source: Institute for Supply Management August 2012 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® PMI at 49.6% Sept 4, 2012 http://www.ism.ws/ismreport/mfgrob.cfm]

[Source: Institute for Supply Management December 2009 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® http://www.ism.ws/about/mediaroom/newsreleasedetail.cfm?itemnumber=19929]

 

/////////////////////////////////////////////////////

 

4/National Debt

 

Dec 31, 2009: $12.311 trillion

Aug 31, 2012: $16.015 trillion

 

Change: $3.7 trillion

 

[Source: Treasury Direct Debt to the Penny http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/NPGateway]

 

////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

 

5/Number on food stamps

 

Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) participation

 

December 2009: 38,978,986

June 2012 (most recent): 46,670,373

 

[Source: USDA SUPPLEMENTAL NUTRITION ASSISTANCE PROGRAM: NUMBER OF PERSONS PARTICIPATING (Data as of August 30, 2012) http://www.fns.usda.gov/pd/29snapcurrpp.htm]

[Source: USDA SUPPLEMENTAL NUTRITION ASSISTANCE PROGRAM: NUMBER OF PERSONS PARTICIPATING- 1 MONTH CHANGE ( Data as of March 2, 2011 ) http://frac.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/snapdata2010_december.pdf]

 

//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

6/Consumer Confidence Index

 

December 2009: 52.9, down from 50.6 in November 2009

August 2012: 60.4, down from 65.4 in July 2012

 

[Source: Conference Board The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® Declines in August. Now at Lowest Level since November 2011. Aug 28, 2012 http://www.conference-board.org/data/consumerconfidence.cfm]

[Source: Conference Board as posted by Reuters TABLE-US consumer confidence index 52.9 in Dec-Conf Board Dec 29, 2009 http://www.reuters.com/article/2009/12/29/usa-economy-confidence-idUSNYS00765720091229

 

/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

 

7/Business Certainty

 

Closest I could find to something like this is the Wells Fargo-Gallup Small Business Index survey

 

Most recent

Wells Fargo-Gallup Small Business Index survey

Conducted July 9-13, 2012

with a random sample of 600 small-business owners.

-- At least seven in 10 U.S. small-business owners say a better sales outlook, more certainty about their operating environment, and lower federal taxes would make their companies more likely to make capital investments in the next 12 months. Lower on the list -- although still chosen by a majority -- were fewer government regulations, more affordable technology, and special government tax credits.

Overall, 41% of U.S. small-business owners expect to make capital investments over the next 12 months. That compares with 53% who say they have made capital investments over the past 12 months.

 

[Source: Gallup Sales, Certainty Key to U.S. Small Business Capital Spending Aug 21, 2012]

 

October 2009

Wells Fargo-Gallup Small Business Index survey

602 small business owners in the continental United States conducted October 5 -9, 2009. The margin of sampling error is +/- four percentage points.

The latest Wells Fargo/Gallup Small Business Index, surveyed October 5-9, shows over half of respondents (58 percent) reporting that they have delayed technology purchases due to the economy, including purchases of new computers (60 percent), new hardware (56 percent) and new software (56 percent). However, there is a narrow percentage (thirteen percent) who report accelerating purchases in order to cut costs or build efficiencies.

 

[Source: Wells Fargo and Gallup from Bloomberg Wells Fargo/Gallup Survey: Small Business Owners Re-Think Nov 24, 2009 http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=avdcvDky81iM]

 

/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

 

8./Interest rates – mortgage rates

 

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States, weekly

12/31/2009 5.14%

8/30/2012: 3.59%

 

[Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/MORTGAGE30US?cid=114]

///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

 

9./Foreclosures

 

December 2009:

Foreclosure filings reported on 349,519 U.S. properties

[Source: RealtyTrac at posted by USA Today Foreclosures jump in December after months of declines Jan 14, 2010 http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/housing/2010-01-13-foreclosures-rise-in-december_N.htm]

 

July 2012:

Foreclosure filings reported on 191,925 U.S. properties.

 

[Source: RealtyTrac Foreclosure Starts Increase for Third Straight Month in July, Bank Repossessions Continue Decline Aug 6, 2012 http://www.realtytrac.com/content/foreclosure-market-report/july-2012-us-foreclosure-market-report-7332]

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