LATEST POLL NUMBERS

 

 

FOR RELEASE: Wednesday, September 19, 2012

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09/19/12 Fox News Poll: Florida, Ohio and Virginia

 

President Barack Obama has the edge over Republican Mitt Romney in three potentially decisive states in the presidential election.

 

Obama tops Romney by seven percentage points among likely voters in both Ohio (49-42 percent) and Virginia (50-43 percent). In Florida, the president holds a five-point edge (49-44 percent).

 

Obama’s lead is just outside the poll’s margin of sampling error in Ohio and Virginia, and within the margin of sampling error in Florida.

 

Fox News Poll

2012 Choice For President

Among Likely Voters

Florida Ohio Virginia

Obama-Biden 49% 49% 50%

Romney-Ryan 44% 42% 43%

 

September 16-18, 2012

Likely Voters Statewide ± 3% Pts.

 

The good news for Romney is that among voters who are “extremely” interested in this year’s election, the races are much tighter. Obama is up by just two points with this group in Virginia (49-47 percent), Florida is tied (48-48 percent), and Romney is up by one point in Ohio (48-47 percent).

 

Fox News Poll

2012 Choice For President Among

“Extremely” Interested Likely Voters

Florida Ohio Virginia

Obama-Biden 48% 47% 49%

Romney-Ryan 48% 48% 47%

 

September 16-18, 2012

Extremely Interested Likely Voters ± 4% Pts.

 

Independents are nearly evenly divided in each of the states, as well.

 

Majorities of voters are unhappy with how things are going in the country, yet in all three states more say they trust Obama than Romney to improve the economy.

 

Fox News Poll

Satisfied With How Things

Are Going In Country Today?

Florida Ohio Virginia

Satisfied 44% 41% 45%

Not Satisfied 56% 57% 54%

 

September 16-18, 2012

Likely Voters Statewide ± 3% Pts.

 

Fox News Poll

Trust To Do A Better Job

Improving Economy & Creating Jobs

Florida Ohio Virginia

Obama 49% 50% 49%

Romney 46% 43% 44%

 

September 16-18, 2012

Likely Voters Statewide ± 3% Pts.

 

Likewise, in each state more voters believe the Obama administration’s policies have helped rather than hurt the economy — albeit by slim margins: By two points in Florida, three points in Ohio and five points in Virginia.

 

Fox News Poll

Have Economic Policies Of Obama Admin.

Helped Or Hurt The Economy?

Florida Ohio Virginia

Helped 41% 39% 42%

Hurt 39% 36% 37%

No Difference 19% 21% 19%

 

September 16-18, 2012

Likely Voters Statewide ± 3% Pts.

 

Amid the turbulent situation in the Middle East, each of the polls shows the president is more trusted than Romney on foreign policy.

 

Fox News Poll

Trust To Do A Better Job

Handling Foreign Policy

Florida Ohio Virginia

Obama 52% 53% 53%

Romney 43% 40% 40%

 

September 16-18, 2012

Likely Voters Statewide ± 3% Pts.

 

Obama’s job approval rating and his personal favorability are 50 percent or higher in these three states. In Ohio and Virginia, the president’s favorable rating is 10 percentage points higher than Romney’s, and it’s 6 points higher in Florida.

 

Fox News Poll

Favorable Opinion Of Candidates

Obama Romney

Florida 55% 49%

Ohio 55% 45%

Virginia 58% 48%

 

September 16-18, 2012

Likely Voters Statewide ± 3% Pts.

 

Fox News Poll

President Obama’s Job Performance

Among Likely Voters

Florida Ohio Virginia

Approve 52% 50% 53%

Disapprove 45% 46% 45%

 

September 16-18, 2012

Likely Voters Statewide ± 3% Pts.

 

In addition, Obama supporters are much more likely than Romney supporters to say they “strongly favor” their candidate: In Ohio by 23 percentage points, in Florida by 21 points and by 17 points in Virginia.

 

Fox News Poll

Best Describes Vote For President

Among Ohio Likely Voters

Obama Romney

Supporters Supporters

Strongly Favor My Candidate 70% 47%

Favor With Reservations 19% 26%

Dislike Other Candidate 10% 26%

 

September 16-18, 2012

Ohio Likely Voters ± 3% Pts.

 

Fox News Poll

Best Describes Vote For President

Among Florida Likely Voters

Obama Romney

Supporters Supporters

Strongly Favor My Candidate 74% 53%

Favor With Reservations 14% 20%

Dislike Other Candidate 12% 25%

 

September 16-18, 2012

Florida Likely Voters ± 3% Pts.

 

Fox News Poll

Best Describes Vote For President

Among Virginia Likely Voters

Obama Romney

Supporters Supporters

Strongly Favor My Candidate 69% 52%

Favor With Reservations 21% 26%

Dislike Other Candidate 9% 21%

 

September 16-18, 2012

Virginia Likely Voters ± 3% Pts.

 

“Obama is nearly matching his 2008 support in these key states while Romney is under-performing compared to Republican John McCain,” says Democratic pollster Chris Anderson, who conducts the Fox News poll with Republican pollster Daron Shaw.

 

“And a significant enthusiasm deficit among Romney backers suggests he will have headwinds as he seeks to close the gap with the president and turn out his voters.”

 

Obama won these states in 2008: Florida by 51-47 percent, Ohio by 52-46 percent and Virginia by 52-47 percent. That was the first time a Democrat had won Virginia since 1964.

 

“The campaigns clearly believe the election may turn on what happens in Florida, Ohio, and Virginia,” says Shaw. “These are the top three states in terms of TV advertising by the campaigns and visits by the candidates.”

The president campaigned in Ohio on Monday and is scheduled to be in Florida on Thursday and Virginia on Friday. Romney plans to be in Florida on Wednesday and Thursday.

 

More voters than not say it is “pretty neat” to live in a hotly-contested state. Some 45 percent of voters in Virginia and 44 percent in Ohio feel that way, as do 40 percent in Florida. On the other hand, nearly a third in each state says it’s a “big pain.”

 

Fox News Poll

Living In A Battleground State Is:

Florida Ohio Virginia

Pretty Neat 40% 44% 45%

Big Pain 31% 29% 30%

Mixed 15% 19% 13%

 

September 9-11, 2012

Likely Voters Statewide ± 3% Pts.

 

Senate Races

The poll also finds Democratic candidates for U.S. Senate topping the Republicans in each of the three states. In Florida, Sen. Bill Nelson is ahead of Republican Connie Mack by a margin of 49-35 percent.

 

Fox News Poll

2012 Choice For U.S. Senator

Among Florida Likely Voters

 

Bill Nelson 49%

Connie Mack 35%

Other/Unsure 16%

 

September 16-18, 2012

Florida Likely Voters ± 3% Pts.

 

In Ohio, incumbent Sen. Sherrod Brown has the advantage over Republican challenger Josh Mandel by 47-40 percent.

 

Fox News Poll

2012 Choice For U.S. Senator

Among Ohio Likely Voters

 

Sherrod Brown 47%

Josh Mandel 40%

 

September 16-18, 2012

Ohio Likely Voters ± 3% Pts.

 

Democrat Tim Kaine is preferred over Republican George Allen by 47-43 percent in Virginia.

 

Fox News Poll

2012 Choice For U.S. Senator

Among Virginia Likely Voters

 

Tim Kaine 47%

George Allen 43%

 

September 16-18, 2012

Virginia Likely Voters ± 3% Pts.

 

Governor Job Ratings

Over half of Virginia likely voters approve of the job Gov. Bob McDonnell (R) is doing (54-28 disapprove).

 

Fox News Poll

Gov. Bob McDonnell’s Job Performance

Among Virginia Likely Voters

 

Approve 54%

Disapprove 28%

Unsure 18%

 

September 16-18, 2012

Virginia Likely Voters ± 3% Pts.

 

For Ohio Gov. John Kasich (R), 46 percent of Ohio likely voters approve and 38 percent disapprove.

 

Fox News Poll

Gov. John’s Kasich’s Job Performance

Among Ohio Likely Voters

 

Approve 46%

Disapprove 38%

Unsure 16%

 

September 16-18, 2012

Ohio Likely Voters ± 3% Pts.

 

In Florida, Gov. Rick Scott (R) receives negative ratings: 39 percent approve, while 49 percent disapprove.

 

Fox News Poll

Gov. Rick Scott’s Job Performance

Among Florida Likely Voters

 

Approve 39%

Disapprove 49%

Unsure 12%

 

September 16-18, 2012

Florida Likely Voters ± 3% Pts.

 

The Fox News poll is conducted under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R) from September 16 to September 18, 2012. The statewide polls are based on landline and cell phone interviews with randomly-chosen likely voters. The total sample of likely voters in each of the three states has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

 

ADDITIONAL RESULTS:

Fox News Poll

Trust To Do A Better Job Protecting

U.S. From Terrorist Attacks

Florida Ohio Virginia

Obama 51% 52% 50%

Romney 42% 40% 42%

 

September 16-18, 2012

Likely Voters Statewide ± 3% Pts.

 

Fox News Poll

Trust To Do A Better Job Protecting

Medicare For Future Generations

Florida Ohio Virginia

Obama 54% 53% 52%

Romney 41% 39% 40%

 

September 16-18, 2012

Likely Voters Statewide ± 3% Pts.

 

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