0/25/12 Fox News Poll: Romney Up by Two Points in Virginia
The race for the White House has tightened in Virginia, where Mitt Romney is now preferred over Barack Obama by two percentage points — 47-45 percent. That’s according to a Fox News poll of Virginia likely voters released Thursday. Romney’s edge is within the poll’s margin of sampling error.
The poll shows a nine-point shift in the margin and a four-point increase in support for Romney. A month ago, Obama topped Romney by seven points in this battleground state (50-43 percent).
Fox News Poll
2012 Choice For President
Among Virginia Likely Voters
Now September
Obama-Biden 45% 50%
Romney-Ryan 47% 43%
October 23-24, 2012
Virginia Likely Voters ± 3% Pts.
The president has also lost ground in the state on his job performance and favorable rating.
In 2008, Obama won 52 percent of the vote in Virginia and was the first Democratic presidential candidate to win the state since 1964.
The biggest shift since September is among independents. They now prefer Romney by 53-31 percent. Last month they were split 43-43 percent.
Fox News Poll
Virginia: Choice For President
Among Independent Likely Voters
Now September
Obama-Biden 31% 43%
Romney-Ryan 53% 43%
October 23-24, 2012
Independent Likely Voters ± 6% Pts.
The race is tight despite Romney’s wide advantage among independents because the poll finds by a five-point margin more voters identify themselves as Democrats — and almost all of them back their party’s nominee. In the 2008 presidential election, the Fox News exit poll found a six-point advantage in party identification for Democrats.
Some of Romney’s strongest groups include white men (+30 points), veterans and active military voters (+22 points) and voters living in $100,000-plus income households (+12 points).
Fox News Poll
Virginia: Choice For President
Among Veterans & Active Military Voters
Obama-Biden 35%
Romney-Ryan 57%
October 23-24, 2012
Virginia Military Voters ± 6% Pts.
Obama’s strengths include his support among blacks (+84 points), unmarried women (+32 points) and voters under age 35 (+18 points).
By a six-point margin, women side with Obama (49-43 percent). He had a 12-point edge among women in September.
The president’s support among women is also down from the 53 percent support in the 2008 exit poll. Likewise, Obama’s current 40 percent support among men is far lower than the 51 percent he had in 2008.
Fox News Poll
Virginia: Choice For President
Among Women Likely Voters
Now September
Obama-Biden 49% 53%
Romney-Ryan 43% 41%
October 23-24, 2012
Women Likely Voters ± 4% Pts.
Among the six in 10 voters “extremely” interested in the race, Romney leads by 52-44 percent.
Fox News Poll
VIRGINIA
Vote Choice Among Most Interested Voters
Now September
Obama-Biden 44% 49%
Romney-Ryan 52% 47%
October 23-24, 2012
Extremely Interested Likely Voters ± 3.5% Pts.
In addition, the challenger’s supporters are a bit more enthusiastic: 64 percent of those backing Romney feel it’s “extremely” important he wins, while 60 percent of those supporting Obama feel that way.
Fox News Poll
VIRGINIA
“Extremely” Important My Candidate Wins
Obama Supporters 60%
Romney Supporters 64%
October 23-24, 2012
Among Candidate Supporters ± 4% Pts.
Romney is now as popular as Obama in Virginia: 54 percent of voters have a favorable opinion of each. Obama’s favorable rating is down four points from 58 percent last month, while Romney’s is up six points from 48 percent.
Fox News Poll
Favorable Opinion Of Candidates
Among Virginia Likely Voters
Now September
Obama 54% 58%
Romney 54% 48%
October 23-24, 2012
Virginia Likely Voters ± 3% Pts.
More Virginia voters now trust Romney to improve the economy and create jobs by a six percentage-point margin. That’s a reversal from last month when more voters trusted Obama by five points (September 16-18).
Fox News Poll
Trust To Do A Better Job
Improving Economy & Creating Jobs
Now September
Obama 44% 49%
Romney 50% 44%
October 23-24, 2012
Virginia Likely Voters ± 3% Pts.
On foreign policy, Virginia voters prefer Obama by 6 points — down from a 13-point advantage in September. More voters also trust Obama on handling Medicare (+5 points).
Fox News Poll
Trust To Do A Better Job
Handling Foreign Policy
Now September
Obama 49% 53%
Romney 43% 40%
October 23-24, 2012
Virginia Likely Voters ± 3% Pts.
Fox News Poll
Trust To Do A Better Job Protecting
Medicare For Future Generations
Now September
Obama 48% 52%
Romney 43% 40%
October 23-24, 2012
Virginia Likely Voters ± 3% Pts.
They favor Romney on cutting government spending (+15 points).
Fox News Poll
Trust To Do A Better Job
Cutting Government Spending
Obama 38%
Romney 53%
October 23-24, 2012
Virginia Likely Voters ± 3% Pts.
Forty-five percent of Virginia voters think the nation’s economy is getting better, while almost as many — 42 percent — say it’s getting worse.
Fox News Poll
National Economic Conditions
Among Virginia Likely Voters
Getting Better 45%
Getting Worse 42%
Staying Same 11%
October 23-24, 2012
Virginia Likely Voters ± 3% Pts.
Fully 85 percent of those saying it’s getting better back Obama, while 88 percent of those saying things are getting worse side with Romney. And the Republican challenger is largely favored among the 11 percent who feel things are staying the same: 53-35 percent.
Roughly equal numbers of Virginia voters think the Obama administration’s economic policies have helped the economy (38 percent) as say the policies have hurt (40 percent). One voter in five says Obama’s policies didn’t make a difference either way (18 percent).
Last month, by a five-point margin more voters said the administration’s policies had done more to help than hurt the economy (42-37 percent).
Fox News Poll
Have Economic Policies Of Obama Admin.
Helped Or Hurt The Economy?
Now September
Helped 38% 42%
Hurt 40% 37%
No Difference 18% 19%
October 23-24, 2012
Virginia Likely Voters ± 3% Pts.
Virginia voters are divided on the job Obama is doing as president: 48 percent approve and 48 percent disapprove. His approval is down from 53 percent in September.
Fox News Poll
President Obama’s Job Performance
Among Virginia Likely Voters
Now September
Approve 48% 53%
Disapprove 48% 45%
October 23-24, 2012
Virginia Likely Voters ± 3% Pts.
At the same time nearly half of voters — 49 percent — approve of Republican Gov. Bob McDonnell’s job performance.
Fox News Poll
Gov. Bob McDonnell’s Job Performance
Among Virginia Likely Voters
Now September
Approve 49% 54%
Disapprove 24% 28%
Unsure 27% 18%
October 23-24, 2012
Virginia Likely Voters ± 3% Pts.
The Fox News poll is based on live telephone interviews on landlines and cell phones from October 23 to October 24 among 1,126 randomly-chosen likely voters in Virginia. Likely voters are registered voters who are considered most likely to vote in the November presidential election or have already voted through early/absentee ballot. The poll is conducted under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R). For the total sample, it has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points.
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For the complete questionnaire go to:
http://fncsharepoint/sites/FoxPolls/Fox%20Polls/Forms/Default1.aspx
Folders for the new results are on the front page.
The Fox News poll is conducted under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R).
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Amanda Morales
Fox News Polling Unit
